Game Theory Group

The Blockchain Brief

2018 Cryptocurrency Predictions

I know, I know. Really dramatic stuff a few days ago on my post about shitcoins. I was glad to hear most folks agreed with the premise - pure speculation on vague projects is not good for the space. We're in the green now though, so put a smile on your face.

We move on to what I consider the good news. My completely not financially-advisable, personal opinions on crypto in 2018. 

I am going to start high-level, and drill down. I welcome your feedback, good and bad.

With that, in 2018, I believe that:

  • The market cap will explode. We're between $650-$700B according to OnChainFX. That's 10x smaller than gold. 100x smaller than some larger asset groups. With the entry of institutional capital looking to establish a foothold, build infrastructure, and provide diversity for clients -- even 1% of funds like Blackrock investing in the space will create an enormous wave of new capital.

    Boris's prediction: $3,000,000,000 total market cap by EOY 2018.

  • Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in trading volume. Both of these mega blockchains are currently struggling with massive scaling issues. The Bitcoin community can't get out of its own way with real, consensus-driven upgrades to the code. If you didn't really want to buy a pizza for yourself with Bitcoin in 2014, you definitely don't want to buy 3 pizzas for someone else with the transaction fees incurred in 2018. 

    Ethereum, on the other hand, has a true leader in Vitalik Buterin. He has the will to push real change through the major roadblocks ahead. The upcoming upgrades to the code-base, not least being the hybrid Proof of Work/Proof of Stake (Serenity) model that will bring Ethereum fully into the mainstream. (A good Ethereum roadmap read).

     

  • Boris's prediction: Ethereum tops 25% of daily trading volume, displacing Bitcoin on its (relative) way down.

  • Bitcoin Cash loses the war. I am not only saying this because I can't stand the hate coming from the @bitcoin handle that was hijacked by Roger Ver supporters in the past couple of months. I am saying this because Bitcoin Cash's entire premise is built on the fact that it is the transaction blockchain to Bitcoin's store of value. My thought here is simple: dozens of emerging tokens have even better technology and more positive communities. 

    Boris's prediction: $BCH (bcash!) growth slows down and reverses sometime in late 2018.

  • AltCoins experience insane volatility and will stop being called AltCoins.I have said this before: I dig AltCoins because they represent the future of the tokenized economy. The teams behind them build amazing, scalable technology, fund worthy causes, and truly attempt to disrupt every component of our financial system. But that's probably 2% of them. Some of the remaining 98% will crash and burn into oblivion, as real tokens finally launch their long-awaited products into the market. And as a side note, I don't think we'll call AltCoins by that name when all respected players are "alternatives" to each other, not just Bitcoin.

    Boris's prediction: $ShitCoins die, $RealCoins fly.

And, finally, the dreaded unscientific Bitcoin price prediction... *drum roll*.... $50,000 on December 31, 2018.

Boris RevsinComment